Personal Allowance in Real Terms 2010–2027 — UK Erosion Analysis
Original analysis of how the UK Personal Allowance has eroded in real terms from 2010-11 to 2027-28. Year-by-year nominal vs CPI-adjusted real value, the post-2022 freeze, and what it costs the median earner.
Year-by-year table
| Tax year | PA (nominal) | CPIH (2010 = 100) | PA in 2010 £ | vs 2010 baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | £6,475 | 100.0 | £6,475 | +0.0% |
| 2011-12 | £7,475 | 104.5 | £7,153 | +10.5% |
| 2012-13 | £8,105 | 107.4 | £7,547 | +16.6% |
| 2013-14 | £9,440 | 109.7 | £8,605 | +32.9% |
| 2014-15 | £10,000 | 111.4 | £8,977 | +38.6% |
| 2015-16 | £10,600 | 111.5 | £9,507 | +46.8% |
| 2016-17 | £11,000 | 112.5 | £9,778 | +51.0% |
| 2017-18 | £11,500 | 115.6 | £9,948 | +53.6% |
| 2018-19 | £11,850 | 118.2 | £10,025 | +54.8% |
| 2019-20 | £12,500 | 120.4 | £10,382 | +60.3% |
| 2020-21 | £12,500 | 121.3 | £10,305 | +59.2% |
| 2021-22 | £12,570 | 124.4 | £10,105 | +56.1% |
| 2022-23 | £12,570 | 134.1 | £9,374 | +44.8% |
| 2023-24 | £12,570 | 143.4 | £8,766 | +35.4% |
| 2024-25 | £12,570 | 148.5 | £8,465 | +30.7% |
| 2025-26 | £12,570 | 152.0 | £8,270 | +27.7% |
| 2026-27 | £12,570 | 156.0 | £8,058 | +24.4% |
| 2027-28 (frozen) | £12,570 | 160.0 | £7,856 | +21.3% |
"vs 2010 baseline" = real-term gain/loss against the 2010-11 PA of £6,475 expressed in 2010 pounds. Positive = the real PA is higher than the 2010 baseline. Negative = real value has fallen below the 2010 starting point. The table stops at 2027-28 (the original Autumn Statement 2022 freeze horizon); the freeze was extended a further three years to April 2031 by Autumn Budget 2025, so £12,570 nominal — and further real-terms erosion — continues beyond this table through 2030-31.
Why this matters
A frozen Personal Allowance is a stealth tax rise. If the £12,570 had been CPI-indexed from 2021-22, it would be approximately £15,150 by 2026-27 and £15,550 by 2027-28. Every £1,000 of the gap is taxed at 20% basic rate (or 40% higher rate above £50,270) — a structural tax increase that compounds with the frozen higher-rate threshold, and one that now runs three years longer than originally legislated.
The freeze is one of the largest implicit tax rises in modern UK history measured in expected revenue. The OBR's November 2022 EFO estimated the original income-tax threshold freeze (2021-22 to April 2028) alone would raise approximately £25 billion/year by 2027-28 — comparable to a 4p rise in the basic rate of income tax — without ever appearing as a rate change in the Budget. Autumn Budget 2025 extended the freeze to April 2031; the OBR's November 2025 EFO puts the freeze's annual revenue at over £55 billion by 2030-31. See the companion UK Fiscal Drag 2026-27 analysis for the full breakdown.
Try the relevant calculators
- Income Tax Calculator — see your tax with the £12,570 PA in 2026-27
- Take-Home Pay Calculator — full PAYE breakdown
- Tax Year Comparison — 2026-27 vs 2025-26 take-home
- UK Fiscal Drag 2026-27 research — companion analysis on threshold freezes
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